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The real questions is: are you lending on true cashflows or on potentially inaccurate assumptions? We are seeing these EBITDA adjustments become more aggressive, and more frequent use of implied adjustments in calculations. This important caveat stipulates how much leeway the borrower will receive before the relevant steps outlined in covenants kick in.
Today, we see transactions with debt entry points starting at 6. Yet, as with the number of covenants, the amount of headroom is not the critical point: the most important contributor to increasing risk, as above, is how cashflows are actually being estimated through adjusted EBITDA.
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It is worth keeping rising risks in perspective. In strategies such as mid-market Direct Lending, a doubling or even a trebling in default rates from their current very low level and a substantial decrease in recovery rates would be unlikely to deliver catastrophic outcomes for the funds in question.
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Deal boom on the way, say private debt professionals
What's included: profiles, data and intelligence. Institutional Investors Future investment plans, allocations, active searches and mandates, past commitments, direct contact details and preferred method of approach. Funds Investment strategy and focus, target size, closes, key contacts, performance and deals.
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Deals and Exits All private debt deals and exits globally, searchable by portfolio companies, equity sponsors and debt providers. Service Providers Fund manager relationships, funds raised, deals facilitated, buyer and seller relationships and contact information. Investment Consultants Client lists, services offered and key contacts.